IRAN LATEST – AT 7:38 P.M. ET:  There's been a great deal of chatter today over that bizarre prediction by Iranian President Ahmadinejad, reported in our first post this morning, that the U.S. will attack at least two countries in the Mideast within the next three months.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, in an interview with Fox News, asked, "What's the second country?"  And that's what's intriguing people. 

Charles Krauthammer came up with the most persuasive answer.  He suggested that Iran, through its clients Syria and Hezbollah, would provoke a military action with Israel, leading to an Israeli response and American assistance to Israel.  The Iranian purpose would be to take pressure off Iran and allow Tehran to demonstrate its power to disrupt the entire region.

Well, that's a good a theory as any I've heard.  But the specific nature of Ahmadinejad's prediction – war within three months – has given people a bit of the jitters.  If Iran is going to provoke something, the period right before an election in the U.S. could, in Iranian eyes, be opportune.  The Iranians may not understand the American tradition of rallying 'round the flag, and may think American politicians will capitulate so as not to rouse "anti-war" opposition during their campaigns.  The Japanese misread the American spirit in their attack on Pearl Harbor, even though the planner of that attack, Admiral Yamamoto, had warned his government that this country would strike back fiercely.

July 27, 2010